Drone Warfare: The New Rules of Combat Are Here

# Drone Warfare: The New Rules of Combat Are Here

## Key Insights from Industry Leaders on the Future of Combat

In a revealing discussion, drone industry pioneers Palmer Luckey of Shield AI and Adam Bry of Skydio shared their perspectives on how drone technology is rapidly changing modern warfare. Both founded innovative companies in a nascent field once considered the domain of hobbyists, which has now become crucial to national security.

## The Rise of Drone Warfare

The proliferation of drones has fundamentally transformed warfare in the past decade, particularly in the last three years. In Ukraine, we’re witnessing how relatively inexpensive commercial drones can take out exquisite military systems like tanks worth millions of dollars, creating a massive asymmetry in combat.

As Bry pointed out: “A system that costs a few thousand can take out a system that costs a few million dollars.” This shift has yet to be fully digested by military establishments worldwide.

## The US vs. China Manufacturing Gap

One of the most concerning aspects highlighted in the discussion is China’s overwhelming manufacturing advantage:

– China has developed formidable industrial capacity for producing drones at scale
– The US offshored much of its manufacturing capacity decades ago
– Both experts agreed this gap would be difficult to close in the short term
– In Ukraine, drones are being deployed at a rate of millions per year, while US military programs operate at the scale of thousands

Bry noted: “Wherever they’re building iPhones, they’re going to have a really good ecosystem for building drones.”

## America’s Competitive Edge: AI and Autonomy

Despite manufacturing challenges, both experts emphasized that the US can maintain superiority through software and autonomy:

1. **AI and autonomy are America’s strengths** – The ability to deploy highly autonomous, AI-driven drones remains a domain where the US can win
2. **Software is the new battlefield** – Luckey emphasized: “A modern conflict becomes basically like a software writing fight”
3. **Speed of deployment is critical** – The ability to update software rapidly (in hours not months) will determine success in future conflicts

## Operating in Contested Environments

The experts discussed how modern drones must function in environments with:
– No GPS access
– Heavy electronic warfare (jamming)