Sam Altman will be “very surprised” if AI doesn’t surpass humans by 2030

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman predicts artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence by 2030, with models capable of making scientific discoveries that humans cannot achieve independently. Speaking at the Axel Springer Award ceremony in Berlin, Altman outlined his vision for AI’s rapid trajectory and OpenAI’s plans to develop a “family of devices” that could fundamentally reshape how people interact with computers.

Timeline for superintelligence: Altman expects AI models to demonstrate extraordinary capabilities well before the decade’s end.

• “By the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don’t have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I’d be very surprised,” Altman said.
• He anticipates that by 2026, AI models will achieve capabilities that would be “quite surprising” by today’s standards.
• The OpenAI CEO believes AI will soon make scientific discoveries “that humans cannot make on their own,” which he considers the threshold for superintelligence.

Economic transformation ahead: Altman predicts significant changes to the job market, focusing on task automation rather than wholesale job elimination.

• He estimates that 30-40% of economic tasks could be performed by AI “in the not very distant future.”
• Drawing parallels to historical job market evolution, Altman noted that roughly half of all jobs change every 75 years even without AI acceleration.
• For his own newborn son, he emphasizes developing “meta-skills” like learning to adapt, understanding what people want, and maintaining human creativity and interaction.

Hardware ambitions revealed: OpenAI is developing computing devices that could revolutionize human-computer interaction beyond current paradigms.

• The company hired an Apple designer and plans to create “a small family of devices” that will “change what it means to use a computer.”
• Altman envisions users giving complex, long-term instructions to AI systems that can execute tasks autonomously over days, months, or even years.
• “You can just trust that the computer will understand it, do it for you, and come back to you when it needs help,” rather than navigating multiple applications and constant notifications.

Safety and alignment focus: Despite criticism about OpenAI’s commercial pivot, Altman maintains that safety remains paramount while rejecting apocalyptic AI scenarios.

• He disagrees with researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky’s comparison of AI-human relationships to human-ant dynamics, preferring co-founder Ilya Sutskever’s vision of AI as “a loving parent.”
• “I don’t think it’ll treat humans like ants,” Altman said, emphasizing the importance of aligning AI with human values.
• OpenAI will maintain its nonprofit structure while scaling its commercial operations to fund safety research and development.

Political landscape navigation: Altman expressed support for the Trump administration’s pro-business policies, particularly regarding infrastructure development crucial for AI companies.

• “President Trump has done an amazing job of supporting this” regarding infrastructure building capabilities in the US.
• When asked about AI potentially governing instead of human presidents, Altman rejected the idea: “I don’t think people want that anytime soon.”
• He expects world leaders to increasingly use AI for complex decision-making while maintaining human oversight and final authority.